The exact algorithm used by Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO) for determining the contents of in-game cases is not publicly disclosed by the game’s developer, Valve Corporation.
However, there are a few things we know about the system based on observations and analyses by players and experts in the CS:GO community:
- Case contents are determined randomly: The contents of a case are determined at the moment the case is opened, using a random number generator (RNG) to select the items that will be awarded.
- Rarity and drop rates: Each case contains a set of items with different rarity levels (e.g., common, rare, legendary). The exact drop rates for each item are not publicly disclosed, but some estimates have been made based on data collected by players over time.
- Pseudo-RNG: Some players have suggested that CS:GO uses a “pseudo-RNG” system for case drops, which means that the likelihood of getting a rare item increases each time you open a case without receiving one. However, this has not been confirmed by Valve and may simply be a perception bias.
- Trade-up contracts: CS:GO also has a system called “trade-up contracts” that allows players to trade in a set of items of a certain rarity for a new item of the next highest rarity. The exact algorithm for determining the outcome of trade-up contracts is also not disclosed.
Overall, while we do not know the exact algorithm used by CS:GO for determining case drops, we do know that the system is random and that the drop rates for each item are not publicly disclosed.
Case contents are determined randomly
The contents of a CS:GO case are determined randomly at the moment the case is opened. This means that there is no way to predict or influence the items you will receive when opening a case. The game uses a random number generator (RNG) to select the items that will be awarded, and each item has a certain probability of being selected based on its rarity level. While the RNG algorithm used by CS:GO is not publicly disclosed, it is generally believed to be fair and unbiased.
Rarity and drop rates
Each case in CS:GO contains a set of items with different rarity levels, ranging from common to rare, and sometimes including “special” or “exceedingly rare” items. The exact drop rates for each item are not publicly disclosed by Valve, but the rarity of each item gives an indication of its relative scarcity and value.
Common items are the most frequently dropped, and they typically have the lowest value. Rare items, on the other hand, are much less common, and they can be quite valuable in the CS:GO economy. Some cases also contain “knife” skins, which are exceedingly rare and highly sought-after by players.
Although the exact drop rates for each item are not known, players have attempted to estimate them based on data collected from opening large numbers of cases. These estimates are not official, and they may not accurately reflect the true drop rates used by the game.
It’s important to note that even though some items may have a lower probability of being dropped, it is still possible to receive them when opening a case. The drop rates for each item are not guaranteed, and players may receive duplicate items or items of lesser value than expected.
Pseudo-RNG
Some players have suggested that CS:GO uses a “pseudo-RNG” system for determining the contents of cases, which means that the likelihood of getting a rare item increases each time you open a case without receiving one. In other words, the more cases you open without receiving a rare item, the higher the probability of getting one on your next attempt.
However, there is no official confirmation from Valve that CS:GO uses such a system, and it is possible that this is simply a perception bias. The idea of pseudo-RNG is based on the observation that many players seem to receive rare items after opening a large number of cases in a row without getting one. However, this could simply be a result of the large number of cases opened, rather than a deliberate game design.
Ultimately, it is unclear whether CS:GO uses a pseudo-RNG system or not, and the exact algorithm used for case drops is not publicly disclosed.
Trade-up contracts
CS:GO also features a system called “trade-up contracts,” which allows players to exchange a set of items for a new item of a higher rarity level. To use a trade-up contract, a player must gather 10 items of the same rarity level (e.g. 10 common-grade weapons), which can then be traded in for a new item of the next highest rarity level. For example, 10 common-grade items can be traded for one new item of the next highest rarity level, which is typically an item of a higher value.
The exact algorithm used to determine the outcome of a trade-up contract is not publicly disclosed by Valve. However, it is believed that the system uses a similar random number generator (RNG) algorithm to the one used for case drops, which means that the probability of receiving a specific item is determined by its rarity level.
Like with case drops, there is no way to predict or influence the outcome of a trade-up contract. The trade-up system is simply a way for players to trade in unwanted items for a chance at getting a new item of a higher value. The value of the new item received from a trade-up contract can vary widely, depending on the rarity level of the item and its current market value.
