Are the Winning Odds Equal For Each Case Opening Site?

Rare CS GO skins

Nowadays, the CS: GO case opening sites are famous for their alternative conditions for box unpackaging. More than 50% of community members prefer online platforms due to their more interactive lottery for skins in 2022. The primary aspect distinguishing such websites from Steam is that ordinary Counter-Strike fans create them as a highly-social and efficient project. And today, everyone who dreams of getting beautiful and rare skins uses CS: GO sites. rating is based on independent research made by analysts and proficient web developers. The specialists study each website and gather essential data about their online performance, structure, and client reviews. The site’s ranking helps get fair and reliable information about the best modern platforms to avoid scammers and have a good time playing. And now, let’s discover if the probability of winning expensive skins depends on the website and what are the chances to pay off in 2022?    

Does Expensive Drop Probability Influence the Website Ranking? 

The answer is “No” because the best case opening sites that appeared in the rating establish their drop chances in each case. They are similar at each top website, and the difference is usually a few percent. The developers make the users see the opportunities for each item’s drop while examining the possible awards.

 It’s provided due to the following aspects: 

  • Getting mutual trust with the audience; 
  • Representing the lottery’s transparency; 
  • Helping choose the collection with high odds for favorite skins. 

So, the probability of winning expensive things is similar at each efficient case opening site, and each user can verify for himself by checking the ones from the ranking top. If the website was recently developed, it might have higher odds than the average market ones. The primary reason is starting new activities with the instant need to expand the customer base. 

Are The Chances to Drop Knives Also Similar for All Sites?

It depends on the CS: GO collection the players choose for opening. The knife will drop in 100% of playing an “Only Knives” custom case (each top website has one). However, the chances may be different if choosing diverse collections with skins for guns, knives, and gloves. The cases are balanced, and the probability of winning blades such as karambit, butterfly, or falchion is high. 

M9 Bayonet “Night” skin

The most typical skins the players hunt on the platforms have the following drop odds: 

  • M9 Bayonet “Night” (~$240) – 11%. 
  • M9 Bayonet “Ultraviolet” (~$300) –  14%. 
  • Gut Knife “Lore” (~$130) – 7%. 
  • Navaja Knife “Fade” (~$160) 8%. 
  • Karambit “Boreal Forest” (~$320) – 5%. 

Nowadays, the most famous cases with each specific knife type are “Shadow Daggers” or “Flip Knives” cases with a 100% probability of winning the favorite skin. That’s why the community chooses the collections that usually include items for weapons they use to play matchmaking.  

And Is It Possible to Drop an Expensive AWP? 

The developers certainly consider such skins the most desired, so AWP skins are usually added to each custom collection. 

“Asiimov” skins

So, the sites commonly set the following chances to get valuable skins for the sniper weapon: 

  • “Asiimov” (~$220) – 9%. 
  • “Hyper Beast” (~$60) – 18%. 
  • “Fade” (~$1200) – 0.06%. 
  • “Mortis” (~$8) – 8%. 
  • “Lightning Strike” (~$800) – 0.8%. 

The legendary “Dragon Lore” and ”Medusa” are also available in the lottery. However, only the luckiest can compete with less than 0.01% odds of dropping them. 

What About the “Howl” Collection? 

It’s one of the rarest design sets in the game that consists of 2 items: M4A4 “Howl” and the sticker “Howl.” The primary colors are dark red and black, and the central pattern is a howling wolf. Such skins have the contraband quality and can’t be dropped from standard CS: GO cases. The case opening sites also consider M4A4 “Howl” (~$2000) a valuable skin and usually set up no more than 0.001-0.1% odds for its drop. The sticker (~$1500) is also rare, and it’s available on websites that provide custom sticker collections for users.

Are Valuable Drop Odds Equal to Everyone? 

The modern algorithm for the lottery’s equal rules for every user is Provably Fair. It reduces the risk of somebody having more chances to get an expensive reward. 

The randomness of the award distribution is based on the following statements: 


  • Live winner’s line. The players can see what drop everyone gets from the cases – it verifies non-adjusted results.   
  • Random numbers. The opening result is defined by several parameters such as the client’s and the server’s seed that influence the roll beginning. 
  • Available seed history for checking. The users can check the server seed after unpacking the box to be convinced of the game’s fairness. 


The users always aim to have a fair game, which is why Provably Fair is essential for the reliability confirmation for case opening sites. The players can check its availability when reading the website conditions. 

How to Pay Off Expenses for Opening Cases? 

There is no universal strategy that guarantees profit after playing on the websites. 

However, several tips help play accurately and minimize the risk of losing: 

  • Stop playing after at least 3 unsuccessful unpackaging. 
  • Start with low and middle-price collections to understand to avoid failure risks. 
  • Evaluate the chances to see how many openings are required for the desired drop. 
  • Open only cases with the items you want to get.   
  • Set up budget limitations to spend 1 time playing on a case opening site

Each user should build an efficient strategy by evaluating the probability of winning and having wise money spending. Otherwise, counting on luck may result in unexpected loss. 

Overall, the probability of winning an expensive skin is similar for each modern platform for CS: GO box unpackaging. It confirms that the developers primarily think about their customers and help them get what they want. The users may choose the most suitable platforms considering the rating to have a wonderful time getting their favorite skins.