The Probability of Dropping an Expensive Skin

“Howl” sets

The players always expect the maximum financial profit from skins. They unlock the case in the game and on websites, participate in various online lotteries and giveaways, and bet on Esports to get valuable items. 


In 2022, different CS: GO case opening platforms grew in popularity due to their: 

  • alternative and transparent algorithms for getting expensive skins
  • paying for the key and the case simultaneously (the cost is lower than in Steam);
  • custom sets that include both new and old-school items; 
  • monthly/weekly giveaways and free bonuses every day;
  • utilizing old and cheap skins for getting more qualitative; 
  • higher chances to get what you want (odds are indicated or each item in a custom case).

At the start of skin hunting, the users aim to acquire sweet skins such as knives, gloves, “Howl” sets, etc. Due to their high price, they are a “jackpot” for the box opening lottery. Their drop usually pays off the players’ money donations. So, let’s discover the odds of getting valuable items on the CS: GO websites and understand why it’s popular in 2022. 

Why Do Websites Reveal Odds for Users? 

It’s not a secret that the probability of the knife’s drop from an in-game case is low. The game analysts provided a specific investigation while opening 100 CS: GO boxes with keys bought on the Steam market. It discovered that the military-special items were dropped with 79.9% frequency, and the knives with 0,26%. The chances are the same for each case, and even opening more than 100 cases can’t guarantee a profit. 

Knife Skins

Unlike Valve, the community websites keep the odds open for players for several reasons: 

  • provide the odds analysis to choose suitable collections with darling skins
  • show the community the site’s transparency and reliability; 
  • making the game equal for everybody. 

When comparing several custom collections with the necessary item, choosing the best considering the odds is simple. That’s why users prefer case opening to investing money for expensive skins

Best Expensive Skins Drop Probability

The preferences for guns in matchmaking are individual, making everyone hunt for different expensive skins. When the snipers look for AWP, SSG 08, or SCAR-20 beautiful designs, the others desire to acquire karambit, shadow daggers, or a gut knife. Usually, such skins can potentially drop in 0.5-5% of unpackings. But now, let’s see the odds for the most popular gun types. 


Everyone enjoys pistols because of exciting first-round skirmishes, in which the potential winner of further 2 matchmaking rounds is determined. Therefore, it has become popular to decorate pistols to show their beautiful design to teammates and play with pleasure yourself. Desert-Eagle, USP-S, and Glock-18 are the most common guns for which players search skins. 

Glove Skins

The case opening sites usually install the specific odds for expensive skins

  • USP-S “The Traitor” ($20-60) – 12%. 
  • Glock-18 “Royal Legion” ($4-6) – 75%. 
  • Desert Eagle “Print Stream” ($80-100) – 33%. 
  • Desert Eagle “Code Red” ($100-105) – 7%. 
  • P2000 “Fire Elemental” ($10-12) – 35%. 


There are several cases with such skins, so their drop odds can be different, so it’s up to players what collection they’ll choose (“Pistols only”, “Glock case”, restricted set, etc.). 


These weapons are perfect instruments for competitive match farming in CS: GO and can severely impact the outcome of eco- or force-buy rounds. Many players enjoy sweet skins for SMGs because they are usually composed of minimalistic patterns and look exciting. The most popular are designs for P90, MP9, Mac-10, MP7 PP-19 Bizon, etc. 

The chances for getting semi-machine gun skins are the following: 

  • MP7 “Bloodsport” ($4-8) – 33%.
  • P90 “Shallow Grave” ($4-5) – 20%. 
  • UMP-45 “Crime Scene” ($28-30) – 5%. 
  • Mac-10 “Neon Rider” ($20-30) – 11%.
  • MP9 “Hot Rod” ($30-35) – 3%. 

Players usually prefer open cases with the specific SMG type because it’s hard to get the favorite design by unlocking the mixed ones. 

Assault and Sniper Rifles 

The matchmaking buy-rounds are always the most exciting because they define each team’s economic conditions because of the rifle’s use. The community regards the automatic and sniper rifle skins as the most valuable (except knives and gloves) and wants to decorate their AK-47, M4A4, Famas, or Galil AR with a pretty pattern. 

The expensive skins for rifles can be dropped with the following probabilities: 

  • AWP “Hyper Beast” ($30-140) – 30%. 
  • AK-47 “Neon Rider” ($25-90) – 11%. 
  • AWP “Asiimov” ($70-300) – 56%. 
  • M4A1-S “Blue Phosphor” ($300-315) – 3%.
  • M4A4 “The Emperor” ($12-33) – 23%. 

Such skins are usually valued, and each collection is expected to have at least 1 design for sniper or automatic rifles. 


Everyone dreamt about having a knife when there was not such a wide variety. The favorite knives of the CS: GO community are flip, navaja, bowie, falchion, and karambit. The knife’s price is commonly higher than $100, making many players aim to get the one. 

The chances of getting an expensive skin for a knife are the following: 

  • Falchion “Ultraviolet” ($100-110) – 13%.
  • Navaja “Fade” ($120-150) – 7%. 
  • Gut “Case Hardened” ($120-130) – 6%. 
  • Huntsman “Crimson Web” ($180-190) – 1%. 
  • Talon “Fade” ($1200-1300) – 0.001%. 

Getting a knife after opening the box will guarantee it’s paying off in 95% of cases. It’s a jackpot, and the player who acquired it is a lucky man. 


The gloves appeared later than knives, but their popularity is also high. The players enjoy such sweet skins because of the innovative change of player model elements for CS: GO when the gloves were added to the game. 

Case opening sites offer the following chances to drop them from a particular case: 

  • Hand Wraps “Arboreal” ($100-105) – 4%. 
  • Moto “Polygon” ($200-210) – 2%.
  • Specialists “Forest DDPAT” ($200-220) – 2%. 
  • Bloodhound “Snake Bite” ($180-190) – 2%.
  • Drivers “Lunar Weave” ($500-520) – 0.002%. 

The bloodhound, moto gloves, and hand wraps are considered the most relevant for the community, so the gamers primarily aim at them. 

Overall, CS: GO case websites provide high odds of getting expensive skins compared to common in-game box unpacking. The customers can choose the suitable collections with favorite items, analyze the chances, and start a lottery to get the desired designs.